Modeling vaccination campaigns and the Fall/Winter 2009 activity of the new A(H1N1) influenza in the Northern Hemisphere
Identifieur interne : 001017 ( Main/Exploration ); précédent : 001016; suivant : 001018Modeling vaccination campaigns and the Fall/Winter 2009 activity of the new A(H1N1) influenza in the Northern Hemisphere
Auteurs : Paolo Bajardi [France] ; Chiara Poletto [Italie] ; Duygu Balcan [États-Unis] ; Hao Hu [États-Unis] ; Bruno Goncalves [États-Unis] ; Jose J. Ramasco [Italie] ; Daniela Paolotti [Italie] ; Nicola Perra [États-Unis] ; Michele Tizzoni [Italie] ; Wouter Van Den Broeck [Italie] ; Vittoria Colizza [Italie] ; Alessandro Vespignani [Italie]Source :
Abstract
The unfolding of pandemic influenza A(H1N1) for Fall 2009 in the Northern Hemisphere is still uncertain. Plans for vaccination campaigns and vaccine trials are underway, with the first batches expected to be available early October. Several studies point to the possibility of an anticipated pandemic peak that could undermine the effectiveness of vaccination strategies. Here we use a structured global epidemic and mobility metapopulation model to assess the effectiveness of massive vaccination campaigns for the Fall/Winter 2009. Mitigation effects are explored depending on the interplay between the predicted pandemic evolution and the expected delivery of vaccines. The model is calibrated using recent estimates on the transmissibility of the new A(H1N1) influenza. Results show that if additional intervention strategies were not used to delay the time of pandemic peak, vaccination may not be able to considerably reduce the cumulative number of cases, even when the mass vaccination campaign is started as early as mid-October. Prioritized vaccination would be crucial in slowing down the pandemic evolution and reducing its burden.
Url:
DOI: 10.3134/ehtj.09.011
Affiliations:
Links toward previous steps (curation, corpus...)
- to stream Hal, to step Corpus: 000205
- to stream Hal, to step Curation: 000205
- to stream Hal, to step Checkpoint: 000303
- to stream Main, to step Merge: 001025
- to stream Main, to step Curation: 001017
Le document en format XML
<record><TEI><teiHeader><fileDesc><titleStmt><title xml:lang="en">Modeling vaccination campaigns and the Fall/Winter 2009 activity of the new A(H1N1) influenza in the Northern Hemisphere</title><author><name sortKey="Bajardi, Paolo" sort="Bajardi, Paolo" uniqKey="Bajardi P" first="Paolo" last="Bajardi">Paolo Bajardi</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><hal:affiliation type="researchteam" xml:id="struct-407864" status="VALID"> <orgName>CPT - E5 Physique statistique et systèmes complexes</orgName> <desc> <address> <country key="FR"></country> </address> </desc> <listRelation> <relation active="#struct-179898" type="direct"></relation> <relation name="UMR7332" active="#struct-198056" type="indirect"></relation> <relation name="UMR7332" active="#struct-303091" type="indirect"></relation> <relation name="UMR7332" active="#struct-441569" type="indirect"></relation> </listRelation> <tutelles><tutelle active="#struct-179898" type="direct"><org type="laboratory" xml:id="struct-179898" status="VALID"> <idno type="RNSR">201220252R</idno> <idno type="IdRef">074454935</idno> <orgName>Centre de Physique Théorique - UMR 7332</orgName> <orgName type="acronym">CPT</orgName> <date type="start">2012</date> <desc> <address> <addrLine>Centre de Physique ThéoriqueCampus de Luminy, Case 907163 Avenue de Luminy13288 Marseille cedex 9, France</addrLine> <country key="FR"></country> </address> <ref type="url">http://www.cpt.univ-mrs.fr</ref> </desc> <listRelation> <relation name="UMR7332" active="#struct-198056" type="direct"></relation> <relation name="UMR7332" active="#struct-303091" type="direct"></relation> <relation name="UMR7332" active="#struct-441569" type="direct"></relation> </listRelation> </org></tutelle><tutelle name="UMR7332" active="#struct-198056" type="indirect"><org type="institution" xml:id="struct-198056" status="VALID"> <idno type="IdRef">15863621X</idno> <idno type="ISNI">0000 0001 2176 4817</idno> <orgName>Aix Marseille Université</orgName> <orgName type="acronym">AMU</orgName> <date type="start">2012-01-01</date> <desc> <address> <addrLine>Aix-Marseille UniversitéJardins du Pharo58 Boulevard Charles Livon13284 Marseille cedex 7</addrLine> <country key="FR"></country> </address> <ref type="url">http://www.univ-amu.fr/</ref> </desc> </org></tutelle><tutelle name="UMR7332" active="#struct-303091" type="indirect"><org type="institution" xml:id="struct-303091" status="VALID"> <idno type="IdRef">031122337</idno> <orgName>Université de Toulon</orgName> <orgName type="acronym">UTLN</orgName> <desc> <address> <addrLine>Avenue de l'Université - BP 20132 - 83957 La Garde Cedex</addrLine> <country key="FR"></country> </address> <ref type="url">http://www.univ-tln.fr/</ref> </desc> </org></tutelle><tutelle name="UMR7332" active="#struct-441569" type="indirect"><org type="institution" xml:id="struct-441569" status="VALID"> <idno type="IdRef">02636817X</idno> <idno type="ISNI">0000000122597504</idno> <orgName>Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique</orgName> <orgName type="acronym">CNRS</orgName> <date type="start">1939-10-19</date> <desc> <address> <country key="FR"></country> </address> <ref type="url">http://www.cnrs.fr/</ref> </desc> </org></tutelle></tutelles></hal:affiliation><country>France</country><placeName><settlement type="city">Marseille</settlement><region type="region" nuts="2">Provence-Alpes-Côte d'Azur</region></placeName><orgName type="university">Université d'Aix-Marseille</orgName></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Poletto, Chiara" sort="Poletto, Chiara" uniqKey="Poletto C" first="Chiara" last="Poletto">Chiara Poletto</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><hal:affiliation type="laboratory" xml:id="struct-28263" status="INCOMING"> <orgName>Complex Networks Lagrange Laboratory</orgName> <desc> <address> <addrLine>Turin</addrLine> <country key="IT"></country> </address> </desc> <listRelation> <relation active="#struct-308655" type="direct"></relation> </listRelation> <tutelles><tutelle active="#struct-308655" type="direct"><org type="institution" xml:id="struct-308655" status="INCOMING"> <orgName>Institute for Scientific Interchange Foundation</orgName> <desc> <address> <country key="FR"></country> </address> </desc> </org></tutelle></tutelles></hal:affiliation><country>Italie</country></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Balcan, Duygu" sort="Balcan, Duygu" uniqKey="Balcan D" first="Duygu" last="Balcan">Duygu Balcan</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><hal:affiliation type="laboratory" xml:id="struct-4332" status="INCOMING"> <orgName>School of Informatics, Indiana University</orgName> <desc> <address> <country key="US"></country> </address> </desc> <listRelation> <relation active="#struct-300689" type="direct"></relation> <relation active="#struct-566099" type="indirect"></relation> </listRelation> <tutelles><tutelle active="#struct-300689" type="direct"><org type="institution" xml:id="struct-300689" status="VALID"> <orgName>Indiana University [Bloomington]</orgName> <desc> <address> <addrLine>107 S. Indiana Avenue, Bloomington, IN 47405-7000</addrLine> <country key="US"></country> </address> <ref type="url">https://www.indiana.edu/</ref> </desc> <listRelation> <relation active="#struct-566099" type="direct"></relation> </listRelation> </org></tutelle><tutelle active="#struct-566099" type="indirect"><org type="regroupinstitution" xml:id="struct-566099" status="VALID"> <orgName>Indiana University System</orgName> <desc> <address> <country key="US"></country> </address> <ref type="url">https://www.iu.edu/</ref> </desc> </org></tutelle></tutelles></hal:affiliation><country>États-Unis</country></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Hu, Hao" sort="Hu, Hao" uniqKey="Hu H" first="Hao" last="Hu">Hao Hu</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><hal:affiliation type="laboratory" xml:id="struct-4332" status="INCOMING"> <orgName>School of Informatics, Indiana University</orgName> <desc> <address> <country key="US"></country> </address> </desc> <listRelation> <relation active="#struct-300689" type="direct"></relation> <relation active="#struct-566099" type="indirect"></relation> </listRelation> <tutelles><tutelle active="#struct-300689" type="direct"><org type="institution" xml:id="struct-300689" status="VALID"> <orgName>Indiana University [Bloomington]</orgName> <desc> <address> <addrLine>107 S. Indiana Avenue, Bloomington, IN 47405-7000</addrLine> <country key="US"></country> </address> <ref type="url">https://www.indiana.edu/</ref> </desc> <listRelation> <relation active="#struct-566099" type="direct"></relation> </listRelation> </org></tutelle><tutelle active="#struct-566099" type="indirect"><org type="regroupinstitution" xml:id="struct-566099" status="VALID"> <orgName>Indiana University System</orgName> <desc> <address> <country key="US"></country> </address> <ref type="url">https://www.iu.edu/</ref> </desc> </org></tutelle></tutelles></hal:affiliation><country>États-Unis</country></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Goncalves, Bruno" sort="Goncalves, Bruno" uniqKey="Goncalves B" first="Bruno" last="Goncalves">Bruno Goncalves</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><hal:affiliation type="laboratory" xml:id="struct-4332" status="INCOMING"> <orgName>School of Informatics, Indiana University</orgName> <desc> <address> <country key="US"></country> </address> </desc> <listRelation> <relation active="#struct-300689" type="direct"></relation> <relation active="#struct-566099" type="indirect"></relation> </listRelation> <tutelles><tutelle active="#struct-300689" type="direct"><org type="institution" xml:id="struct-300689" status="VALID"> <orgName>Indiana University [Bloomington]</orgName> <desc> <address> <addrLine>107 S. Indiana Avenue, Bloomington, IN 47405-7000</addrLine> <country key="US"></country> </address> <ref type="url">https://www.indiana.edu/</ref> </desc> <listRelation> <relation active="#struct-566099" type="direct"></relation> </listRelation> </org></tutelle><tutelle active="#struct-566099" type="indirect"><org type="regroupinstitution" xml:id="struct-566099" status="VALID"> <orgName>Indiana University System</orgName> <desc> <address> <country key="US"></country> </address> <ref type="url">https://www.iu.edu/</ref> </desc> </org></tutelle></tutelles></hal:affiliation><country>États-Unis</country></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Ramasco, Jose J" sort="Ramasco, Jose J" uniqKey="Ramasco J" first="Jose J." last="Ramasco">Jose J. Ramasco</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><hal:affiliation type="laboratory" xml:id="struct-28263" status="INCOMING"> <orgName>Complex Networks Lagrange Laboratory</orgName> <desc> <address> <addrLine>Turin</addrLine> <country key="IT"></country> </address> </desc> <listRelation> <relation active="#struct-308655" type="direct"></relation> </listRelation> <tutelles><tutelle active="#struct-308655" type="direct"><org type="institution" xml:id="struct-308655" status="INCOMING"> <orgName>Institute for Scientific Interchange Foundation</orgName> <desc> <address> <country key="FR"></country> </address> </desc> </org></tutelle></tutelles></hal:affiliation><country>Italie</country></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Paolotti, Daniela" sort="Paolotti, Daniela" uniqKey="Paolotti D" first="Daniela" last="Paolotti">Daniela Paolotti</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><hal:affiliation type="laboratory" xml:id="struct-28263" status="INCOMING"> <orgName>Complex Networks Lagrange Laboratory</orgName> <desc> <address> <addrLine>Turin</addrLine> <country key="IT"></country> </address> </desc> <listRelation> <relation active="#struct-308655" type="direct"></relation> </listRelation> <tutelles><tutelle active="#struct-308655" type="direct"><org type="institution" xml:id="struct-308655" status="INCOMING"> <orgName>Institute for Scientific Interchange Foundation</orgName> <desc> <address> <country key="FR"></country> </address> </desc> </org></tutelle></tutelles></hal:affiliation><country>Italie</country></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Perra, Nicola" sort="Perra, Nicola" uniqKey="Perra N" first="Nicola" last="Perra">Nicola Perra</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><hal:affiliation type="laboratory" xml:id="struct-4332" status="INCOMING"> <orgName>School of Informatics, Indiana University</orgName> <desc> <address> <country key="US"></country> </address> </desc> <listRelation> <relation active="#struct-300689" type="direct"></relation> <relation active="#struct-566099" type="indirect"></relation> </listRelation> <tutelles><tutelle active="#struct-300689" type="direct"><org type="institution" xml:id="struct-300689" status="VALID"> <orgName>Indiana University [Bloomington]</orgName> <desc> <address> <addrLine>107 S. Indiana Avenue, Bloomington, IN 47405-7000</addrLine> <country key="US"></country> </address> <ref type="url">https://www.indiana.edu/</ref> </desc> <listRelation> <relation active="#struct-566099" type="direct"></relation> </listRelation> </org></tutelle><tutelle active="#struct-566099" type="indirect"><org type="regroupinstitution" xml:id="struct-566099" status="VALID"> <orgName>Indiana University System</orgName> <desc> <address> <country key="US"></country> </address> <ref type="url">https://www.iu.edu/</ref> </desc> </org></tutelle></tutelles></hal:affiliation><country>États-Unis</country></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Tizzoni, Michele" sort="Tizzoni, Michele" uniqKey="Tizzoni M" first="Michele" last="Tizzoni">Michele Tizzoni</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><hal:affiliation type="laboratory" xml:id="struct-28263" status="INCOMING"> <orgName>Complex Networks Lagrange Laboratory</orgName> <desc> <address> <addrLine>Turin</addrLine> <country key="IT"></country> </address> </desc> <listRelation> <relation active="#struct-308655" type="direct"></relation> </listRelation> <tutelles><tutelle active="#struct-308655" type="direct"><org type="institution" xml:id="struct-308655" status="INCOMING"> <orgName>Institute for Scientific Interchange Foundation</orgName> <desc> <address> <country key="FR"></country> </address> </desc> </org></tutelle></tutelles></hal:affiliation><country>Italie</country></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Broeck, Wouter Van Den" sort="Broeck, Wouter Van Den" uniqKey="Broeck W" first="Wouter Van Den" last="Broeck">Wouter Van Den Broeck</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><hal:affiliation type="laboratory" xml:id="struct-28263" status="INCOMING"> <orgName>Complex Networks Lagrange Laboratory</orgName> <desc> <address> <addrLine>Turin</addrLine> <country key="IT"></country> </address> </desc> <listRelation> <relation active="#struct-308655" type="direct"></relation> </listRelation> <tutelles><tutelle active="#struct-308655" type="direct"><org type="institution" xml:id="struct-308655" status="INCOMING"> <orgName>Institute for Scientific Interchange Foundation</orgName> <desc> <address> <country key="FR"></country> </address> </desc> </org></tutelle></tutelles></hal:affiliation><country>Italie</country></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Colizza, Vittoria" sort="Colizza, Vittoria" uniqKey="Colizza V" first="Vittoria" last="Colizza">Vittoria Colizza</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><hal:affiliation type="laboratory" xml:id="struct-28263" status="INCOMING"> <orgName>Complex Networks Lagrange Laboratory</orgName> <desc> <address> <addrLine>Turin</addrLine> <country key="IT"></country> </address> </desc> <listRelation> <relation active="#struct-308655" type="direct"></relation> </listRelation> <tutelles><tutelle active="#struct-308655" type="direct"><org type="institution" xml:id="struct-308655" status="INCOMING"> <orgName>Institute for Scientific Interchange Foundation</orgName> <desc> <address> <country key="FR"></country> </address> </desc> </org></tutelle></tutelles></hal:affiliation><country>Italie</country></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Vespignani, Alessandro" sort="Vespignani, Alessandro" uniqKey="Vespignani A" first="Alessandro" last="Vespignani">Alessandro Vespignani</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><hal:affiliation type="laboratory" xml:id="struct-28263" status="INCOMING"> <orgName>Complex Networks Lagrange Laboratory</orgName> <desc> <address> <addrLine>Turin</addrLine> <country key="IT"></country> </address> </desc> <listRelation> <relation active="#struct-308655" type="direct"></relation> </listRelation> <tutelles><tutelle active="#struct-308655" type="direct"><org type="institution" xml:id="struct-308655" status="INCOMING"> <orgName>Institute for Scientific Interchange Foundation</orgName> <desc> <address> <country key="FR"></country> </address> </desc> </org></tutelle></tutelles></hal:affiliation><country>Italie</country></affiliation></author></titleStmt><publicationStmt><idno type="wicri:source">HAL</idno><idno type="RBID">Hal:hal-00474649</idno><idno type="halId">hal-00474649</idno><idno type="halUri">https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-00474649</idno><idno type="url">https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-00474649</idno><idno type="doi">10.3134/ehtj.09.011</idno><date when="2009">2009</date><idno type="wicri:Area/Hal/Corpus">000205</idno><idno type="wicri:Area/Hal/Curation">000205</idno><idno type="wicri:Area/Hal/Checkpoint">000303</idno><idno type="wicri:explorRef" wicri:stream="Hal" wicri:step="Checkpoint">000303</idno><idno type="wicri:Area/Main/Merge">001025</idno><idno type="wicri:Area/Main/Curation">001017</idno><idno type="wicri:Area/Main/Exploration">001017</idno></publicationStmt><sourceDesc><biblStruct><analytic><title xml:lang="en">Modeling vaccination campaigns and the Fall/Winter 2009 activity of the new A(H1N1) influenza in the Northern Hemisphere</title><author><name sortKey="Bajardi, Paolo" sort="Bajardi, Paolo" uniqKey="Bajardi P" first="Paolo" last="Bajardi">Paolo Bajardi</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><hal:affiliation type="researchteam" xml:id="struct-407864" status="VALID"> <orgName>CPT - E5 Physique statistique et systèmes complexes</orgName> <desc> <address> <country key="FR"></country> </address> </desc> <listRelation> <relation active="#struct-179898" type="direct"></relation> <relation name="UMR7332" active="#struct-198056" type="indirect"></relation> <relation name="UMR7332" active="#struct-303091" type="indirect"></relation> <relation name="UMR7332" active="#struct-441569" type="indirect"></relation> </listRelation> <tutelles><tutelle active="#struct-179898" type="direct"><org type="laboratory" xml:id="struct-179898" status="VALID"> <idno type="RNSR">201220252R</idno> <idno type="IdRef">074454935</idno> <orgName>Centre de Physique Théorique - UMR 7332</orgName> <orgName type="acronym">CPT</orgName> <date type="start">2012</date> <desc> <address> <addrLine>Centre de Physique ThéoriqueCampus de Luminy, Case 907163 Avenue de Luminy13288 Marseille cedex 9, France</addrLine> <country key="FR"></country> </address> <ref type="url">http://www.cpt.univ-mrs.fr</ref> </desc> <listRelation> <relation name="UMR7332" active="#struct-198056" type="direct"></relation> <relation name="UMR7332" active="#struct-303091" type="direct"></relation> <relation name="UMR7332" active="#struct-441569" type="direct"></relation> </listRelation> </org></tutelle><tutelle name="UMR7332" active="#struct-198056" type="indirect"><org type="institution" xml:id="struct-198056" status="VALID"> <idno type="IdRef">15863621X</idno> <idno type="ISNI">0000 0001 2176 4817</idno> <orgName>Aix Marseille Université</orgName> <orgName type="acronym">AMU</orgName> <date type="start">2012-01-01</date> <desc> <address> <addrLine>Aix-Marseille UniversitéJardins du Pharo58 Boulevard Charles Livon13284 Marseille cedex 7</addrLine> <country key="FR"></country> </address> <ref type="url">http://www.univ-amu.fr/</ref> </desc> </org></tutelle><tutelle name="UMR7332" active="#struct-303091" type="indirect"><org type="institution" xml:id="struct-303091" status="VALID"> <idno type="IdRef">031122337</idno> <orgName>Université de Toulon</orgName> <orgName type="acronym">UTLN</orgName> <desc> <address> <addrLine>Avenue de l'Université - BP 20132 - 83957 La Garde Cedex</addrLine> <country key="FR"></country> </address> <ref type="url">http://www.univ-tln.fr/</ref> </desc> </org></tutelle><tutelle name="UMR7332" active="#struct-441569" type="indirect"><org type="institution" xml:id="struct-441569" status="VALID"> <idno type="IdRef">02636817X</idno> <idno type="ISNI">0000000122597504</idno> <orgName>Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique</orgName> <orgName type="acronym">CNRS</orgName> <date type="start">1939-10-19</date> <desc> <address> <country key="FR"></country> </address> <ref type="url">http://www.cnrs.fr/</ref> </desc> </org></tutelle></tutelles></hal:affiliation><country>France</country><placeName><settlement type="city">Marseille</settlement><region type="region" nuts="2">Provence-Alpes-Côte d'Azur</region></placeName><orgName type="university">Université d'Aix-Marseille</orgName></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Poletto, Chiara" sort="Poletto, Chiara" uniqKey="Poletto C" first="Chiara" last="Poletto">Chiara Poletto</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><hal:affiliation type="laboratory" xml:id="struct-28263" status="INCOMING"> <orgName>Complex Networks Lagrange Laboratory</orgName> <desc> <address> <addrLine>Turin</addrLine> <country key="IT"></country> </address> </desc> <listRelation> <relation active="#struct-308655" type="direct"></relation> </listRelation> <tutelles><tutelle active="#struct-308655" type="direct"><org type="institution" xml:id="struct-308655" status="INCOMING"> <orgName>Institute for Scientific Interchange Foundation</orgName> <desc> <address> <country key="FR"></country> </address> </desc> </org></tutelle></tutelles></hal:affiliation><country>Italie</country></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Balcan, Duygu" sort="Balcan, Duygu" uniqKey="Balcan D" first="Duygu" last="Balcan">Duygu Balcan</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><hal:affiliation type="laboratory" xml:id="struct-4332" status="INCOMING"> <orgName>School of Informatics, Indiana University</orgName> <desc> <address> <country key="US"></country> </address> </desc> <listRelation> <relation active="#struct-300689" type="direct"></relation> <relation active="#struct-566099" type="indirect"></relation> </listRelation> <tutelles><tutelle active="#struct-300689" type="direct"><org type="institution" xml:id="struct-300689" status="VALID"> <orgName>Indiana University [Bloomington]</orgName> <desc> <address> <addrLine>107 S. Indiana Avenue, Bloomington, IN 47405-7000</addrLine> <country key="US"></country> </address> <ref type="url">https://www.indiana.edu/</ref> </desc> <listRelation> <relation active="#struct-566099" type="direct"></relation> </listRelation> </org></tutelle><tutelle active="#struct-566099" type="indirect"><org type="regroupinstitution" xml:id="struct-566099" status="VALID"> <orgName>Indiana University System</orgName> <desc> <address> <country key="US"></country> </address> <ref type="url">https://www.iu.edu/</ref> </desc> </org></tutelle></tutelles></hal:affiliation><country>États-Unis</country></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Hu, Hao" sort="Hu, Hao" uniqKey="Hu H" first="Hao" last="Hu">Hao Hu</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><hal:affiliation type="laboratory" xml:id="struct-4332" status="INCOMING"> <orgName>School of Informatics, Indiana University</orgName> <desc> <address> <country key="US"></country> </address> </desc> <listRelation> <relation active="#struct-300689" type="direct"></relation> <relation active="#struct-566099" type="indirect"></relation> </listRelation> <tutelles><tutelle active="#struct-300689" type="direct"><org type="institution" xml:id="struct-300689" status="VALID"> <orgName>Indiana University [Bloomington]</orgName> <desc> <address> <addrLine>107 S. Indiana Avenue, Bloomington, IN 47405-7000</addrLine> <country key="US"></country> </address> <ref type="url">https://www.indiana.edu/</ref> </desc> <listRelation> <relation active="#struct-566099" type="direct"></relation> </listRelation> </org></tutelle><tutelle active="#struct-566099" type="indirect"><org type="regroupinstitution" xml:id="struct-566099" status="VALID"> <orgName>Indiana University System</orgName> <desc> <address> <country key="US"></country> </address> <ref type="url">https://www.iu.edu/</ref> </desc> </org></tutelle></tutelles></hal:affiliation><country>États-Unis</country></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Goncalves, Bruno" sort="Goncalves, Bruno" uniqKey="Goncalves B" first="Bruno" last="Goncalves">Bruno Goncalves</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><hal:affiliation type="laboratory" xml:id="struct-4332" status="INCOMING"> <orgName>School of Informatics, Indiana University</orgName> <desc> <address> <country key="US"></country> </address> </desc> <listRelation> <relation active="#struct-300689" type="direct"></relation> <relation active="#struct-566099" type="indirect"></relation> </listRelation> <tutelles><tutelle active="#struct-300689" type="direct"><org type="institution" xml:id="struct-300689" status="VALID"> <orgName>Indiana University [Bloomington]</orgName> <desc> <address> <addrLine>107 S. Indiana Avenue, Bloomington, IN 47405-7000</addrLine> <country key="US"></country> </address> <ref type="url">https://www.indiana.edu/</ref> </desc> <listRelation> <relation active="#struct-566099" type="direct"></relation> </listRelation> </org></tutelle><tutelle active="#struct-566099" type="indirect"><org type="regroupinstitution" xml:id="struct-566099" status="VALID"> <orgName>Indiana University System</orgName> <desc> <address> <country key="US"></country> </address> <ref type="url">https://www.iu.edu/</ref> </desc> </org></tutelle></tutelles></hal:affiliation><country>États-Unis</country></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Ramasco, Jose J" sort="Ramasco, Jose J" uniqKey="Ramasco J" first="Jose J." last="Ramasco">Jose J. Ramasco</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><hal:affiliation type="laboratory" xml:id="struct-28263" status="INCOMING"> <orgName>Complex Networks Lagrange Laboratory</orgName> <desc> <address> <addrLine>Turin</addrLine> <country key="IT"></country> </address> </desc> <listRelation> <relation active="#struct-308655" type="direct"></relation> </listRelation> <tutelles><tutelle active="#struct-308655" type="direct"><org type="institution" xml:id="struct-308655" status="INCOMING"> <orgName>Institute for Scientific Interchange Foundation</orgName> <desc> <address> <country key="FR"></country> </address> </desc> </org></tutelle></tutelles></hal:affiliation><country>Italie</country></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Paolotti, Daniela" sort="Paolotti, Daniela" uniqKey="Paolotti D" first="Daniela" last="Paolotti">Daniela Paolotti</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><hal:affiliation type="laboratory" xml:id="struct-28263" status="INCOMING"> <orgName>Complex Networks Lagrange Laboratory</orgName> <desc> <address> <addrLine>Turin</addrLine> <country key="IT"></country> </address> </desc> <listRelation> <relation active="#struct-308655" type="direct"></relation> </listRelation> <tutelles><tutelle active="#struct-308655" type="direct"><org type="institution" xml:id="struct-308655" status="INCOMING"> <orgName>Institute for Scientific Interchange Foundation</orgName> <desc> <address> <country key="FR"></country> </address> </desc> </org></tutelle></tutelles></hal:affiliation><country>Italie</country></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Perra, Nicola" sort="Perra, Nicola" uniqKey="Perra N" first="Nicola" last="Perra">Nicola Perra</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><hal:affiliation type="laboratory" xml:id="struct-4332" status="INCOMING"> <orgName>School of Informatics, Indiana University</orgName> <desc> <address> <country key="US"></country> </address> </desc> <listRelation> <relation active="#struct-300689" type="direct"></relation> <relation active="#struct-566099" type="indirect"></relation> </listRelation> <tutelles><tutelle active="#struct-300689" type="direct"><org type="institution" xml:id="struct-300689" status="VALID"> <orgName>Indiana University [Bloomington]</orgName> <desc> <address> <addrLine>107 S. Indiana Avenue, Bloomington, IN 47405-7000</addrLine> <country key="US"></country> </address> <ref type="url">https://www.indiana.edu/</ref> </desc> <listRelation> <relation active="#struct-566099" type="direct"></relation> </listRelation> </org></tutelle><tutelle active="#struct-566099" type="indirect"><org type="regroupinstitution" xml:id="struct-566099" status="VALID"> <orgName>Indiana University System</orgName> <desc> <address> <country key="US"></country> </address> <ref type="url">https://www.iu.edu/</ref> </desc> </org></tutelle></tutelles></hal:affiliation><country>États-Unis</country></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Tizzoni, Michele" sort="Tizzoni, Michele" uniqKey="Tizzoni M" first="Michele" last="Tizzoni">Michele Tizzoni</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><hal:affiliation type="laboratory" xml:id="struct-28263" status="INCOMING"> <orgName>Complex Networks Lagrange Laboratory</orgName> <desc> <address> <addrLine>Turin</addrLine> <country key="IT"></country> </address> </desc> <listRelation> <relation active="#struct-308655" type="direct"></relation> </listRelation> <tutelles><tutelle active="#struct-308655" type="direct"><org type="institution" xml:id="struct-308655" status="INCOMING"> <orgName>Institute for Scientific Interchange Foundation</orgName> <desc> <address> <country key="FR"></country> </address> </desc> </org></tutelle></tutelles></hal:affiliation><country>Italie</country></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Broeck, Wouter Van Den" sort="Broeck, Wouter Van Den" uniqKey="Broeck W" first="Wouter Van Den" last="Broeck">Wouter Van Den Broeck</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><hal:affiliation type="laboratory" xml:id="struct-28263" status="INCOMING"> <orgName>Complex Networks Lagrange Laboratory</orgName> <desc> <address> <addrLine>Turin</addrLine> <country key="IT"></country> </address> </desc> <listRelation> <relation active="#struct-308655" type="direct"></relation> </listRelation> <tutelles><tutelle active="#struct-308655" type="direct"><org type="institution" xml:id="struct-308655" status="INCOMING"> <orgName>Institute for Scientific Interchange Foundation</orgName> <desc> <address> <country key="FR"></country> </address> </desc> </org></tutelle></tutelles></hal:affiliation><country>Italie</country></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Colizza, Vittoria" sort="Colizza, Vittoria" uniqKey="Colizza V" first="Vittoria" last="Colizza">Vittoria Colizza</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><hal:affiliation type="laboratory" xml:id="struct-28263" status="INCOMING"> <orgName>Complex Networks Lagrange Laboratory</orgName> <desc> <address> <addrLine>Turin</addrLine> <country key="IT"></country> </address> </desc> <listRelation> <relation active="#struct-308655" type="direct"></relation> </listRelation> <tutelles><tutelle active="#struct-308655" type="direct"><org type="institution" xml:id="struct-308655" status="INCOMING"> <orgName>Institute for Scientific Interchange Foundation</orgName> <desc> <address> <country key="FR"></country> </address> </desc> </org></tutelle></tutelles></hal:affiliation><country>Italie</country></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Vespignani, Alessandro" sort="Vespignani, Alessandro" uniqKey="Vespignani A" first="Alessandro" last="Vespignani">Alessandro Vespignani</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><hal:affiliation type="laboratory" xml:id="struct-28263" status="INCOMING"> <orgName>Complex Networks Lagrange Laboratory</orgName> <desc> <address> <addrLine>Turin</addrLine> <country key="IT"></country> </address> </desc> <listRelation> <relation active="#struct-308655" type="direct"></relation> </listRelation> <tutelles><tutelle active="#struct-308655" type="direct"><org type="institution" xml:id="struct-308655" status="INCOMING"> <orgName>Institute for Scientific Interchange Foundation</orgName> <desc> <address> <country key="FR"></country> </address> </desc> </org></tutelle></tutelles></hal:affiliation><country>Italie</country></affiliation></author></analytic><idno type="DOI">10.3134/ehtj.09.011</idno></biblStruct></sourceDesc></fileDesc><profileDesc><textClass></textClass></profileDesc></teiHeader><front><div type="abstract" xml:lang="en"> <p>The unfolding of pandemic influenza A(H1N1) for Fall 2009 in the Northern Hemisphere is still uncertain. Plans for vaccination campaigns and vaccine trials are underway, with the first batches expected to be available early October. Several studies point to the possibility of an anticipated pandemic peak that could undermine the effectiveness of vaccination strategies. Here we use a structured global epidemic and mobility metapopulation model to assess the effectiveness of massive vaccination campaigns for the Fall/Winter 2009. Mitigation effects are explored depending on the interplay between the predicted pandemic evolution and the expected delivery of vaccines. The model is calibrated using recent estimates on the transmissibility of the new A(H1N1) influenza. Results show that if additional intervention strategies were not used to delay the time of pandemic peak, vaccination may not be able to considerably reduce the cumulative number of cases, even when the mass vaccination campaign is started as early as mid-October. Prioritized vaccination would be crucial in slowing down the pandemic evolution and reducing its burden.</p> </div></front></TEI><affiliations><list><country><li>France</li><li>Italie</li><li>États-Unis</li></country><region><li>Provence-Alpes-Côte d'Azur</li></region><settlement><li>Marseille</li></settlement><orgName><li>Université d'Aix-Marseille</li></orgName></list><tree><country name="France"><region name="Provence-Alpes-Côte d'Azur"><name sortKey="Bajardi, Paolo" sort="Bajardi, Paolo" uniqKey="Bajardi P" first="Paolo" last="Bajardi">Paolo Bajardi</name></region></country><country name="Italie"><noRegion><name sortKey="Poletto, Chiara" sort="Poletto, Chiara" uniqKey="Poletto C" first="Chiara" last="Poletto">Chiara Poletto</name></noRegion><name sortKey="Broeck, Wouter Van Den" sort="Broeck, Wouter Van Den" uniqKey="Broeck W" first="Wouter Van Den" last="Broeck">Wouter Van Den Broeck</name><name sortKey="Colizza, Vittoria" sort="Colizza, Vittoria" uniqKey="Colizza V" first="Vittoria" last="Colizza">Vittoria Colizza</name><name sortKey="Paolotti, Daniela" sort="Paolotti, Daniela" uniqKey="Paolotti D" first="Daniela" last="Paolotti">Daniela Paolotti</name><name sortKey="Ramasco, Jose J" sort="Ramasco, Jose J" uniqKey="Ramasco J" first="Jose J." last="Ramasco">Jose J. Ramasco</name><name sortKey="Tizzoni, Michele" sort="Tizzoni, Michele" uniqKey="Tizzoni M" first="Michele" last="Tizzoni">Michele Tizzoni</name><name sortKey="Vespignani, Alessandro" sort="Vespignani, Alessandro" uniqKey="Vespignani A" first="Alessandro" last="Vespignani">Alessandro Vespignani</name></country><country name="États-Unis"><noRegion><name sortKey="Balcan, Duygu" sort="Balcan, Duygu" uniqKey="Balcan D" first="Duygu" last="Balcan">Duygu Balcan</name></noRegion><name sortKey="Goncalves, Bruno" sort="Goncalves, Bruno" uniqKey="Goncalves B" first="Bruno" last="Goncalves">Bruno Goncalves</name><name sortKey="Hu, Hao" sort="Hu, Hao" uniqKey="Hu H" first="Hao" last="Hu">Hao Hu</name><name sortKey="Perra, Nicola" sort="Perra, Nicola" uniqKey="Perra N" first="Nicola" last="Perra">Nicola Perra</name></country></tree></affiliations></record>Pour manipuler ce document sous Unix (Dilib)
EXPLOR_STEP=$WICRI_ROOT/Sante/explor/H2N2V1/Data/Main/Exploration
HfdSelect -h $EXPLOR_STEP/biblio.hfd -nk 001017 | SxmlIndent | more
Ou
HfdSelect -h $EXPLOR_AREA/Data/Main/Exploration/biblio.hfd -nk 001017 | SxmlIndent | more
Pour mettre un lien sur cette page dans le réseau Wicri
{{Explor lien
|wiki= Sante
|area= H2N2V1
|flux= Main
|étape= Exploration
|type= RBID
|clé= Hal:hal-00474649
|texte= Modeling vaccination campaigns and the Fall/Winter 2009 activity of the new A(H1N1) influenza in the Northern Hemisphere
}}
| This area was generated with Dilib version V0.6.33. |  |